Comments on: No single fix can cover this $1.2B gap

By: Alon Levy

Alon Levy — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 17:08:04 +0000

I think you mean it’s more elastic in Manhattan… but I disagree. Most people in Manhattan can’t take anything except the subway to work. The buses crawl, cars are a luxury, and walking is impossible if you live Uptown and work Downtown.

By: NYC Subway MetroCards $3 to Fix $600M MTA Budget Deficit? | StationStops

NYC Subway MetroCards $3 to Fix $600M MTA Budget Deficit? | StationStops — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 13:39:07 +0000

[...] The MTA has a budget deficit of $1.2 BILLION dollars. Even after slashing costs, it’ll be around $600M. [...]

By: herenthere

herenthere — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 23:24:52 +0000

Well, I think mass transit ridership is generally more inelastic w/i Manhattan, and decreases as you go further out into the suburbs. B/c people who live in the outer boroughs have really no other inexpensive way to get to work.

By: Marc Shepherd

Marc Shepherd — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 18:46:06 +0000

The 30 day unlimited card should go up to at least $80.

It’s $81 already.

At this point, those people who only ride the subway to and from work (i.e. 2xs per weekday) would not receive a price break and would essentially pay the $2 base fare.

The relevant comparison is $1.74 per ride, because that’s what you pay after the 15% discount. Commuters seldom pay $2, since almost every kind of MetroCard has some kind of discount.

By: Scott C

Scott C — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 18:32:53 +0000

The 30 day unlimited card should go up to at least $80. At this point, those people who only ride the subway to and from work (i.e. 2xs per weekday) would not receive a price break and would essentially pay the $2 base fare. Those people who ride more than 40xs in a month would start to see some savings.

By: Alon Levy

Alon Levy — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 18:02:27 +0000

I’m not sure. If the MTA gets reimbursed in full for every ride and if subway ridership is completely inelastic, then it needs to hike fares by ¢13 (roughly 8-9% of average fare) to generate $200 million per year. The problem is ridership has low elasticity, not no elasticity. With reasonable assumptions on elasticity, the MTA needs to hike fares by about 10%.

By: Alon Levy

Alon Levy — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 17:42:17 +0000

No, people from Manhattan pay for the subway, too. Most Manhattanites don’t live within walking distance of where they work.

By: Marc Shepherd

Marc Shepherd — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 17:28:02 +0000

East River tolls, and congestion pricing aren’t really under the MTA’s control, so it would seem that the only way for them to close this gap is through austerity and fare increases…

That’s a strawman, because the government created the MTA, so the government can choose to fill the gap however it pleases. The reason for the Ravitch commission was the recognition that fare increases and service cuts alone weren’t going to get it done.

But to answer your question, in round numbers it would require about a 25% fare and toll increase across the board to fill the gap. Of course, just like last time, they probably won’t raise every tariff by the same amount. Last time, they stupidly left the subway/bus base fare at $2, thereby giving tourists and occasional riders the biggest break. I don’t think you’ll see that dumb mistake again.

By: Alfred Beech

Alfred Beech — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 17:13:27 +0000

How big of a fare increase will generate $200 million next year?

East River tolls, and congestion pricing aren’t really under the MTA’s control, so it would seem that the only way for them to close this gap is through austerity and fare increases, so I’m wondering how big an increase in fares it would take to generate $1.2 billion.

By: Benjamin Kabak

Benjamin Kabak — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 14:34:45 +0000

True. But then if you believe the MTA can cut off a good amount of bureaucratic waste, then you can reach that $1.2 billion figure that way. The overall point remains the same: It’s going to take a combination of measures to fund the MTA. No single measure can fix the overall problem.