Archive for East Side Access Project
A few weeks ago while speaking to a group of Long Island Business owners, MTA Chairman Joe Lhota previewed what had long been rumored concerning the East Side Access Project. The MTA did not anticipate finishing the project until mid-2019. For an agency long accused of mismanaging large-scale construction projects, this news was not surprising, and on Monday, when the authority confirmed its projections in a presentation to its Capital Project Oversight Committee, we learned just how deep the delays and cost overruns ran.
On the surface, the bad news is, well, bad. According to the most recent MTA projections, the project will not wrap until August 2019 and costs could run as high as $8.24 billion. That price tag is up nearly $1 billion since the last official estimate was released in 2009, and the expected date for revenue service has been pushed back by nearly three years. Those are the 80-percent probability projetions, and the news is bad all around.
As this news broke on Monday, MTA Board members, reporters and train riders all wanted to know the same thing: How did we get here? Six years ago, the MTA had hoped to wrap the project by 2013; three years ago, that date had shifted three years forward. Now, we’re still seven years away from seeing this massive project realized, and skepticism over this newly revised schedule is entirely warranted.
Still, much as they did with the similarly troubled Fulton Street Transit Center a few years ago, MTA officials pledged to stick with the current schedule. “The era of underestimating the cost of big projects is over,” Lhota said. “We’re going to be realistic about the cost and we’re going to budget accordingly.”
Ascertaining how the MTA has botched this project requires two separate arguments, First, the MTA ran into internal problems three years ago when they last assessed their own timeline. In 2009, the MTA put forward their 2016 estimate with no official risk analysis and no determination of the completion percentage. In 2010, when they finally conducted the analysis, the authority determined that their estimate was wildly optimistic. They had a 20 percent chance of hitting the cost and timeline goals. The 80 percent figures were closer to 2017 and $8.01 billion, but the authority never pushed that in public.
In 2011, the authority opted to change its risk analysis figures. Instead of providing a 50/50 figure, they would offer up an 80/20 figure and conduct a risk analysis on every project. So this new figure is a more concrete one. The MTA says there is an 80 percent chance the project wraps at $8.24 billion and by August 2019. There’s also a 20 percent chance the project comes in at $7.81 billion and is ready by September 2018, but that’s clearly an optimistic estimate. The current 80 percentile projection does, for what it’s worth, contain a 12-month contingency period and a cushion of around $0.36 billion should things go wrong.
The other problem, though, highlights what happens when various agencies — city, state, federal — who need to share resources have to work together. The short of it is that the MTA and Amtrak seem to be unable to properly coordinate train schedules and work on the Harold Interlocking, thus leading to massive delays and other assorted headaches. Ted Mann went in depth on this issue in Monday’s Wall Street Journal, and I strongly urge you to read that article if you haven’t already.
As Mann relates, the interaction between the MTA and Amtrak reached inept proportions when the federal agency decided to move workers at the last minute to Grand Central for National Train Day, leaving the MTA out in the cold. In official documents on Monday, the authority stopped short of pointing fingers, but it’s clear the MTA is fed up with working with Amtrak. It is, Michael Horodniceanu said of the East Side Access problems, “like riding a bicycle while trying to change the tire.”
So as the feds gear up to audit the project, we are essentially left where we were when things began. The project is optimistically seven years away from revenue service and another billion dollars in the hole. The money has to come from somewhere, and the faith in the MTA does too. At some point, funding partners will dry up, and large-scale projects will never materialize right at the time the city needs them the most. So now we wait seven more years. It’s always seven more years.
In a few years at some point, the MTA will have opened a great expanse of new retail space. The Fulton Street Transit Center will feature more than 30,000 square feet of retail space out of a total of 70,000 square feet, and the 360,000-square-foot East Side Access terminal will have 23,000 square feet of retail space. With the need to find an efficient and skilled operator for these spaces, privatization may be on the table.
In an article in Crain’s New York, Jeremy Smerd recently delved into the MTA’s plans for the spaces. While Metro-North currently operates the Grand Central retail space, the agency seems to recognize that transportation should trump its focus on the space. “Ultimately, our core competency is transportation,” an official said. “We want to try this method of operations at the Fulton Center, and we’ll see how it does.”
So what’s the plan at the East Side Access station? It’s going to be a few years before we have a definite answer, but right now, the MTA is thinking about privatizing some aspect of operations. Smerd reports:
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority is considering outsourcing the management and operations of the tunnels and 360,000-square-foot station being built to bring Long Island Rail Road trains into Grand Central Terminal under the East Side Access project. The authority paid Scottsdale, Ariz.-based InfraConsult $600,000 to determine the feasibility of outsourcing the operations of the concourse, 90 feet under Grand Central. The company completed its report in February. It has not yet been publicly released.
An MTA spokesman said the authority was particularly focused on whether it should outsource the maintenance of the 360,000-square-foot concourse, which includes 23,000 square feet of retail space. “We don’t know for sure if we are going to go the RFP route,” the spokesman said.
A British trade journal, PPP Bulletin, reported last week that the MTA was considering a public-private partnership at the site. The spokesman told Crain’s Insider Thursday that the privatization would be limited to the operations of the station, not the new tunnels, which will be run by the MTA. But the consultant on the project on Friday said the report examined privatizing both the station as well as the tunnels’ operations and maintenance. “Our objective was to determine whether it would benefit the long-term operations of the new East Side Access program to use the private sector to operate the tunnel component and the terminal component,” said Mike Schneider, a managing partner with InfraConsult.
It’s probably a bit premature to read anything into this development. It’s an exploratory move by the MTA, and the authority won’t have to confront the question head on until 2016 or 2017. Yet, with the public-private partnership moving forward for Fulton Street — the RFP will come out next month — it’s hard to envision the authority not following a similar path.
So should they? On the one hand, the authority should focus on transportation offerings. But on the other, rail companies across the globe have made significantly dollars on real estate. The MTR in Hong Kong is essentially a real estate company that operates the trains, and others have exploited their holdings far more effectively than the MTA has. I’ll be curious to see the terms attached to Fulton St., but such a deal there or underneath Grand Central isn’t necessarily a slam dunk.
While speaking with the Long Island Association earlier this morning, MTA Chairman Joseph Lhota let slip the news on East Side Access that has been a few months’ coming. “We were originally looking at 2018, but the most recent analyses puts the opening at 2019,” Lhota said. “I don’t want to see it go past 2019.”
LIBN.com has more:
The problem with East Side Access isn’t digging below Grand Central Station, where “cavernous tunnels” have been carved out, but on the Queens side of the project. Tunneling underneath the Queens rail yard near Jamaica, where trains from Amtrak and Acela are stored in addition to MTA’s own vehicles, has become an issue.
Contaminated soil languishes and must be disposed of properly, and unlike closer to the water, the ground is soft rather than rocky. Lhota said workers have also run into springs and brooks that nobody knew existed below the surface. The MTA has brought in experts from Europe to help with developing a plan going forward.
To call this a nightmare scenario for the MTA would not be hyperbole. Initial estimates, clearly optimistic, placed the completion date during 2012, and the timeline slipped first to 2014 and then to 2016 and then to some undetermined date in the future. Now, it seems, we will have to wait seven more years for this project, with substantial tunneling completed, to see revenue service.
There is, as yet, no word what this timeline will mean for the costs. I’ll have more info as I receive it. At least for now those bemoaning Metro-North service into Penn Station will have a good decade to refine their arguments.
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(Update 5:30 p.m.): Later in the day, the MTA put out the following statement as the authority acted to temper down fears of a never-ending project:
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority is reevaluating the risks in the construction schedule for the East Side Access project, and plans to present its findings to the Capital Program Oversight Committee later this month. One preliminary analysis of risk factors has indicated the completion date may move to 2019, as East Side Access construction intensifies in the busiest passenger rail yard and the largest passenger rail interchange in the nation.
The analysis is not complete, and the MTA is identifying ways to mitigate those risk factors to allow the project to be completed as early as possible. The MTA continues to work with its partners at the Federal Transit Administration to update the East Side Access funding agreement to reflect the new schedule.
Amtrak and the MTA are working closely together on East Side Access and improvements to the East River tunnels and the Harold Interlocking to accommodate the roughly 500,000 passengers who rely on 1,200 train movements through the region each day. Senior executives at Amtrak, the MTA and NJ Transit regularly meet to coordinate construction activities and do everything possible to keep work moving forward.
We’ll have a more definite timeline later this month when the MTA Board gathers to discuss this delay-plagued project.
Over the past few decades, the MTA has had a touchy relationship with its escalators. Those that exist in the subway system break down more often than we would prefer, and repairs take far longer to complete than initially expected. Some of the problem is due to the 24-7 pounding these machines take, and part of the problem is due to just about anything you could imagine.
Some time this decade, the authority will open its most escalator-dependent station yet. When the East Side Access terminal opens, 15 stories underneath Grand Central, the authority will be relying on 47 escalators traversing 180 feet into the depths. As Ted Mann wrote in The Journal on Friday, “The success of the new station is riding in large part on how well they work.” That may be a scary thought indeed.
Mann has more on the escalators:
Commuters might endure a short trudge up stairs, but few would have patience—or the stamina—for a heart-pounding slog to the surface that rivals a military workout. In public remarks about the East Side Access project, MTA Chairman Joseph Lhota has invoked the notoriously steep, and sometimes stalled, escalators of the Metro in Washington, D.C. With that in mind, the authority is leaving little to chance. Engineers have added extra capacity, so breakdowns won’t bring the station to a standstill.
And the MTA is experimenting with a first-of-its kind contract that will partially privatize the escalators. The company that designed the escalators and 22 elevators for the station won’t just install them, but also operate and maintain them in years to come. “The proof will be in the pudding,” one MTA official said, but the agency is counting on the arrangement to ensure its costly gamble to redirect commuter rail to Manhattan’s East Side will pay off.
Schindler Elevator Corp. won a $70.2 million contract to do the design, installation and long-term operation and maintenance of the system. “We’re putting the onus on the people who actually install them to operate them,” said Michael Horodniceanu, the president of the MTA’s Capital Construction division, which is building the project. The escalators will be the longest ever made at Schindler’s plant in Clinton, N.C., said Glenn Rodenheiser, the company’s project executive for East Side Access.
The key, of course, will be this privatization effort. Right now, commuters who know of the East Side Access plan have little sense of just how deep the terminal is, and the MTA will have no choice but to keep these escalators running. Otherwise, the traffic into and out of this deep terminal will suffer tremendously.
Some very tragic news from the East Side Access project: Michael O’Brien, a 26-year-old sandhog, was killed by falling concrete yesterday while working on the East Side Access project underneath Grand Central Terminal. As the Daily News reports, O’Brien, an employee of Dragados, a private contractor working on the project, was working not 10 feet away from his father when the slab of concrete came lose and fell on him. His father tried to perform CPR to save him, but he died at Bellevue Hospital yesterday evening. Said the MTA in a statement, “The Metropolitan Transportation Authority wishes to extend its deepest condolences to Mr. O’Brien’s family and his fellow workers.”
Despite a request by President Obama to fulfill full-funding obligations, Congress has authorized slightly less than promised for the MTA’s big-ticket items. As Rep. Carolyn Maloney announced yesterday, in the 2012 budget, House and Senate leaders have granted the MTA $186,566,000 for the Second Ave. Subway and $203,424,000 for the East Side Access Project. Some House Republicans had tried to introduce significant funding cuts, but a bipartisan effort led to the restoration of nearly all of the promised dollars.
Despite these grants, the MTA had been counting on more. The President had asked for $197 million for SAS and $215 million for ESA. Some House drafts of the appropriations bill would have cut those mounts by 21 and 47 percent respectively. These cuts, in the 5-9 percent range instead, are much more palatable. It is, as yet, unclear how the lesser grants will increase the MTA’s two megaprojects.
“These funding levels are not ideal, but the MTA should be able to keep the Second Avenue Subway and East Side Access on track with the amounts provided. These desperately-needed transit projects are creating tens of thousands of jobs literally beneath our feet,” Maloney said in a statement. “At a time when pretty much everyone agrees that job creation should be our number-one priority, I’m relieved that adequate federal funding for two of the best job-creation engines in the New York area has been included in the 2012 budget. Transit projects are among the best economic stimulus programs around – indeed, every dollar spent on public infrastructure boosts our economy by an estimated $1.59.”
In January of 2010, MTA Capital Construction announced an incremental benefit of East Side Access construction. Although at the time the project was not set to open until 2016, the MTA planned to debut a new entrance this September on 47th Street between Park and Lexington Avenues. It is not yet meant to be.
Many frequent Metro-North commuters had noted that the entrance hadn’t opened in September as planned, and I recently reached out to the MTA for an official statement on the delay. While the completion date for East Side Access has been delayed with a report on a new estimated date due out later this year, the entrance could have opened as planned. It was not meant to be, and now the MTA expects to ready this entry point early next year.
“We expect the entrance will open in the first quarter of 2012,” MTA spokesman Aaron Donovan said. “Metro-North has shifted to a more sophisticated security system for Grand Central, and the entrance needs to be made compatible with the new system.”
The new entrance, when it opens, will feature an escalator from the street to the 47th St. cross passageway and a staircase from the street to the platform shared by Tracks 11 and 13. Meanwhile, we’re stilling waiting for the bad news from MTA Capital Construction President Michael Horodniceanu concerning the estimated revenue service date for ESA. My money is on 2018.
When the MTA Board gathered for its most recent meeting in July, the authority’s leaders addressed concerns over the East Side Access Project’s rate of progress. With federal officials predicting a 16-month delay, the MTA admitted that it had exhausted its schedule contingency for a variety of reasons. This week, we learn that the authority has officially delayed the project completion date to April 2018, sixteen months later than scheduled. “This is a project facing significant challenges,” MTA CEO and Chair Jay Walder said during subcommittee meetings yesterday.
Ultimately, shaky project management as well as conflicts with Amtrak over the Harold Interlocking has led to these delays, and the news is only going to get worse for LIRR riders. Beginning in October and continuing through 2015, Amtrak is set to replace the track in all four of its East River tunnels after inspections following a May derailment found significant track damage. The work will take place in 55-hour spurts over nearly every weekend until 2015. Tracks will be out of service from 10 p.m. on Fridays through 5 a.m. on Mondays and during some weekday overnight periods. The LIRR says the work will have “little or no impact” on its service, but the work will leave less operating flexibility during the weekends. This tunnel work will delay work on the Harold Interlocking which, in turn, will delay the East Side Access project.
Meanwhile, official recognition of this delay leaves me worried over the fate of the Second Avenue Subway as well. At the same time they predicted this postponement, the Feds also said that SAS was likely headed toward a similar fate. Such a substantial delay along the Upper East Side would be disastrous for the neighborhood and for the MTA politically. Meanwhile, as foreign transit agencies build at a quick rate and for less money, the MTA is stuck with a deep cavern north of Grand Central for upwards of $8 billion and 12 years of construction. That’s a problem.
The federal government is raining on the MTA’s parade again. For the past year, the Federal Transit Administration has warned that the East Side Access Project and Phase 1 of the Second Ave. Subway would not wrap in 2016 as the MTA predicts. Rather, the government believes the two projects will finish in 2018, around 15 months later than planned and over budget. A new report reiterates that stance.
According to the FTA, East Side Access and the SAS and well behind schedule and significantly over budget. East Side Access, the feds say, will open in April 2018 with a price tag of $8.1 billion while the SAS will enter revenue service in February 2018 and at a cost of $4.8 billion. The MTA maintains these two projects will be completed in September and December of 2016 and at a cost of $7.1 billion and $4.4 billion respectively. The authority did however note that concerns over East Side Access remain.
The MTA disputed the FTA report. “As we have said previously, a project of this magnitude does not come without risks. We continue to work to mitigate those risks, adhere to the current schedule and keep the project on budget,” agency spokesman Kevin Ortiz said.
However, the FTA called the pace of the subcontracting work “unacceptable,” and AM New York has more:
The reports show the feds’ continued frustration with the East Side Access project, reiterating its stance on when the first riders will benefit from it — and at what cost. But they did soften their opinion on the management of the Second Avenue subway, saying the team overseeing the project “has been diligent in resolving critical construction issues and avoiding extensive construction delays,” despite its negative projections.
MTA board member Mitch Pally, who sits on the agency’s capital projects committee, said the board is aware of the government’s concerns, but is not convinced the problems are unavoidable. “Obviously we’re concerned about the timing because the quicker we can put this into revenue service, the better it is for the MTA,” Pally said, adding that the agency is trying to find ways to speed up work and trim costs. “We have no plans on waving the white flag until we absolutely have to.”
Charles Moerdler, another MTA board member on the committee that oversees the projects, said he believed the FTA’s reports were “inaccurate,” and called capital construction president Michael Horodniceanu’s work “perfectly magnificent.” “They are doing as good if not a better job than one can reasonably expect,” Moerdler said.
The FTA had nothing to add to their report, according to amNY but further explained that if the MTA “successfully managed and mitigated its risks, the overruns they predict for the projects’ schedules and costs could be reduced.”
As amNew York reports and as I said above, this debate over the timeline truly is nothing new, but it’s not a comforting development. It shouldn’t take 10 years to build three stops of a subway line, and the MTA may have to get its ducks in order to see these projects delivered in time. For now, the warnings and the disputes are out there, and the subway construction will continue seemingly forever and ever.
As the East Side Access project inches toward completion, one of the tunnel boring machines digging out the tubes in Manhattan has spun its last cutter head, and it won’t be coming up for air. The Spanish contract that owns Seli, the TBM that has been cutting through Manhattan schist since 2007, has decided to abandon the TBM 14 stories beneath Park Avenue. It would, simply put, cost more than the TBM is worth to pull it back out into Sunnyside, dismantle it and sell it for scrap, and so the nether reaches of Manhattan will be its final resting place.
Its exact resting place appears to be at around Park Ave. between 37th and 38th Streets, and the MTA and its contractors will use the laid-to-rest TBM for tunnel support. Later this week, it will be encased in concrete, and the 22.5-foot-long drill will be marked with a plaque only. As The Times notes, the decision evokes images of Planet of the Apes, and while other countries have buried TBMs, this is a first for New York. There is, of course, no room to do the same along Second Ave. or the 7 Line extension. “People will find it, and they will find it exciting to see it, if they ever unearth it,” Michael Horodniceanu, head of MTA Capital Construction, said. “Who knows? Maybe they will want to continue the railroad south, at which point they would have to take it out.”