Nearly three and a half months ago, local politicians and MTA officials came together in the giant pit underneath Second Ave. to celebrate the launch of Adi, the tunnel boring machine for the Second Ave. Subway. While symbolic, the launch was a momentous sign of progress for a project eight decades in the planning and eight decades delayed. Although the current iteration of the Second Ave. Subway had originally been slated for a 2012 opening, with the launch of the TBM, the MTA felt confident it would be ready by the end of 2016.
As with many things concerning the MTA’s capital construction program, though, the best laid plans of mice and men always seem to go awry. Earlier this month, the TBM had gone only 300 feet, far less than the estimated 40-60 feet per day, and officials assured me that the tunnel boring machine was simply going through some growing pains. It would be pick up the pace soon, they said. That reality has not come to pass quite yet.
Ten days ago, the MTA ran into a speed bump when a probe drill surfaced on Second Avenue, just a few away from active gas lines. At that point, the MTA had to investigate the incident, but spokesman Kevin Ortiz said the timeframe would remain the same. “We don’t anticipate this to have an impact on completing of the first run of the TBM before the end of the year,” he told me.
Today, this news is the same, and yet again, MTA officials are promising that the grass is greener on the other side, that the sun will come out tomorrow, and that a few more cliches are applicable here. As the Daily News reports, the TBM is averaging just 14 feet per day due to various mechanical issues, and amNY says the drill has reached only 90th Street.”We have yet to achieve the productivity I was hoping,”Michael Horodniceanu, head of capital construction, said. “We were plagued by a lot of technical problems.”
Pete Donohue says that the machine’s problems have included a broken driveshaft as well as issues with various “electronic components and hydraulics systems.” While Horodniceanu says the problems are in the process of getting resolved and that TBMs often face unforeseen obstacles in the first few months, the MTA’s tale documents tell the tale of another delay. The following chart is from this week’s Transit Committee deck and shows the TBM timeline:
As is plainly obvious, the timeline for the TBM work has already slipped by six months. It is not expected to wrap now until the end of 2011. This is but another delay in the ongoing saga of the Second Ave. Subway.
Publicly, the MTA claims this new TBM timeframe won’t impact the completion date of Phase 1 of the SAS, but even that late 2016 date is in doubt. Although transit officials haven’t gone on record saying so, the agency appears to be heeding the FTA’s timeline. The feds think a mid-2018 completion date is far more realistic. Sitting here today in 2010, I wouldn’t bet on the 2018 with my SAS Futures Fund either.
It’s not easy to build a subway through a densely populated part of town when utilities aren’t mapped and American companies don’t possess the engineering expertise. Still, as the Second Ave. Subway slowly moves toward completion, the timeline is stretched out further and further into the future. Because of the federal investment, Phase 1 will see the light of day, but Phases 2-4 are in doubt. If they make it off the paper, we won’t see the full line until the late 2020s at the earliest, and the Second Ave. Subway continues to be the city’s greatest unrealized promise.