There’s a fare hike heading our way, and absent a miracle in Albany, there’s nothing anyone can do to stop it. The Straphangers have rightly pleaded with Gov. Andrew Cuomo to do something, and The Times did the same in Saturday’s paper. This growing chorus of voices calling for more state support may be able to avert a steep hike in 2015, but there’s not enough time for the notoriously slow-moving state political machine to kick in gear before the MTA has to start generating more revenue.

So we, the riding public, are left with trying to make the best of a bad situation. On Monday morning, the MTA will officially unveil the various proposals all aimed at generating a few hundred million dollars a year more, and throughout November, the authority will hear public feedback. Oftentimes, those meetings devolve into a mess of public complaints against the MTA and little of substance concerning the fare hike proposals. But there’s a lot riding on this year’s hike. (Ed. Note: The four scenarios outlined below are confirmed as the ones under consideration by the MTA. Public hearings will take place during the second week in November.)

As I’ve mentioned before, how the MTA approaches this hike will tell us a lot about who’s paying more. Will the MTA once again go after unlimited ride card users or try to bump up the pay-per-ride costs? I looked at this issue last week, and it’s not an easy one. The claims that a pay-per-ride bump would negatively impact those who can least afford to pay are partially borne out by demographics numbers, but even that impact may be overstated. Still, it’s a consideration.

As we wait out the official announcement, enough leaked stories — designed to gauge rider feedback — have led us to know something about the looming fare hike. So from information gleaned from various articles, let’s look at the competing proposals:

As I’ve mentioned before, I’d prefer scenario 1, but that’s because I’m a 30-day card user who enjoys the benefits of pre-tax Metrocards each month. According to numbers provided to me by the Straphangers, such a scenario results in a $60 annual increase in transit spending for 30-day card users, a $50 bump for 7-day card users and a whopping $208 increase for pay-per-ride users. That’s a disparate impact if ever I saw one.

Scenarios 2 and 3 lead to considerably more spending by everyone. Under 2, 30-day users would be on the hook for over $200 more per year, and the break-even point would jump to 59 rides, an all-time high. With no increase in the base fare and a small decrease in bonus, pay-per-ride users would likely have to spend around $20 more per year. That’s hardly equitable either.

The new proposal — Scenario No. 4 above — comes to us from today’s Daily News. In his piece, Pete Donohue notes that MTA officials are not likely to eliminated the discount, as, per one Transit official, “the reaction [was] very cool.” With a seven percent bonus at $2.50 per swipe, the effective fare would be around $2.32, and thus, under proposal 4, the break-even point for a $112 30-day card would be 49 rides, one less than the current 50-ride mark on the $104 cards. Signs are, as Donohue notes, pointing the way toward such a scenario.

But let’s toss this one wide open. Though no one wants a fare hike, pick your poison. I’ve opened the poll below and am curious to see how SAS readers would go if given the choice. It might not be ideal, but that’s where we are today.

In 1998, when the unlimited monthly MetroCard made its New York City debut, the MTA priced this item at $63. In the intervening 14 years, the price has risen by $41, and today, that same card costs a cool $104. The MTA has been particularly aggressive in rising the prices for these unlimited ride cards in order to combat declining revenue per trip, but these cards increase subway ridership overall. It’s quite the catch-22, and it’s rearing its head once again.

A few weeks ago, as the MTA leaked word of its looming fare hike plan, it seemed as monthly cards would largely be spared while the base fare would see a big jump and all pay-per-ride discounts would be eliminated. Now, in the face of an outcry over that proposal, a second plan has seemingly emerged that would spike unlimited ride cards considerably. The Daily News, proclaiming obviously that a fare hike will “hit riders hard,” has more:

Bus and subway riders would pay as much as $125 for a monthly MetroCard — a $21 increase — under one of four fare-hike schemes the MTA is mulling, the Daily News has learned. This proposal would increase the price of an unlimited-ride weekly MetroCard to $34 — a $5 boost — and reduce the Pay-Per-Ride MetroCard bonus, sources said. But it would leave the base subway and bus fare unchanged at $2.25, sources said…

The MTA has fashioned four fare-hike scenarios in advance of public hearings set for next month. Each scheme would generate $232 million in additional revenue from bus and subway riders. Two of the proposals would keep the base fare at $2.25. One of these would reduce the Pay-Per-Ride MetroCard bonus from 7% to 5%, charge $34 for the weekly unlimited-ride MetroCard and $125 for the monthly travel pass. The second would ax the 7% MetroCard bonus altogether, increase the weekly MetroCard to $32 (up $3) and jack the monthly MetroCard to $119 (up $15).

As The News reported exclusively last month, the MTA also is considering two other proposals that would raise the base fare a quarter to $2.50. These 25-cent hike proposals would trigger additional fare changes to the MetroCard bonus and the time-based MetroCards.

It’s a bit unclear what the other two proposals look like. Last month, the same Daily News reported that one version of the fare hike would eliminate the bonus entirely while the base fare would jump to $2.50 and unlimited 7-day cards would bump up $1 and 30-day cards $5. It seems as though the MTA is now considering a proposal, mentioned above, to keep the fare at $2.25 while putting the revenue onus on unlimited card users instead.

For personal and policy reasons, I hate that idea. For the past few fare hikes, unlimited card users have gotten the shaft. I understand the MTA wants to recapture what they view as lost revenue from unlimited card riders, but the unlimiteds have also contributed to a marked increase in subway usage over the past two decades. Meanwhile, nearly 47 percent of subway riders turn to unlimited cards, and we shouldn’t be asked to foot the bill every time a fare hike comes along while pay-per-ride users get something of a pass.

It seems likely that the ultimate decision will be made during the fare hike hearings, but the trick is going to be weeding out the noise. Already, the Straphangers, for instance, are saying “enough is enough” when it comes to fare hikes, but short of asking Gov. Cuomo for money that doesn’t exist, they’re not pushing for any other revenue solution. Prices are going to go up; it’s a preordained conclusion. But doing so in a way that spreads the pain is key.