On Sunday, the MTA will raise the fares. A single ride will cost $2.25, and the various MetroCard offerings will increase by a few dollars. For those of us watching, it won’t come as a surprise, and we’ll know that the MTA almost had to raise the fares by a much greater percentage than they did. We’ll also know that the MTA’s finances — just one set of books — is not too far from the edge of a disaster, and we’ll know that the MTA would rather not have to raise the fares at all.

The sad part is, though, that the vast majority of New Yorkers don’t know and don’t care to find out. They don’t care to invest time to educate themselves about the mass transit system. They would rather complain about fictional charges — two sets of books, the MTA wants to cut service, yadda yadd yadda — than educate themselves about transit and find out how a true commitment to transit investment would radically improve life in New York City.

A series of articles by Heather Haddon that appears this week in amNew York drive home this point. For the most, these articles are anecdotal. Haddon staked out a bunch of subway stations, asked various straphangers their views on the upcoming fare hike and picked some of the most ludicrous answers to highlight.

On Monday, Haddon focused on the fact that some riders did not know the fares were going up. Never mind the front page news coverage or the lead stories on the local newscasts about it. “Get out of here. Nobody’s going to pay that,” Richard Tillman said. “It just went up.”

No one, Richard? Really? I think everyone will pay it, and it will remain a relatively cheap and easy way to get around the city.

The best quotes from Haddon’s articles though are from those who say they will turn to their cars. “Now I know what I’m going to do next week. I’m going to pull out the car,” Angela Pacheco of Brooklyn said because the 30-Day Unlimited Ride is going up the cost of a whopping three gallons of gas. Another rider in another Haddon piece echoed Pacheco. “Might as well get a car,” Marcia Roberts, a Queens resident, said.

This is the attitude that explains why our mass transit system doesn’t have political support. This is why people are going to be fighting with MTA employees over the new fares. This is why politicians refuse to toll the East River bridges, refuse to allow the city to implement camera-enforced bus lanes. This is why the agency that runs our subway system — a system that transports over 5.2 million people per day — is struggling to keep it in a state of good repair.

On the eve of yet another fare hike, transit advocates have themselves to blame. We haven’t united behind the proper message; we haven’t overcome a powerful auto lobby; and we haven’t made our voices heard by those who hold the purse strings. One day, that will change. For now, we’re left with higher fares and a transit authority on life support.

On June 28th, transit fares across the city will rise by around eight percent. As has long been the case with fare increases, savvy straphangers will rush to stock up on cards carrying the pre-increase price tag. While once upon a time, we could horde tokens away for months on end, with the advent of the MetroCard, the MTA has been able to staunch the revenue loss to do stockpiled tokens.

Today, the transit authority announce the grace periods for the current MetroCards. Riders, according to the press release, have but a week to begin using their cards. Riders who purchase any of the unlimited-ride options — the one-, seven-, 14-, or 30-Day cards — prior to June 28th will be able to use their cards for the full duration if they are first swiped no later than July 6th. Pay-per-ride cards are not impacted by the fare charge.

As far as sunset dates go, those are staggered. In other words, if you purchase one of the unlimited ride options and use it for the first time after July 6th, you will not get full credit for all of your travel. Instead, riders will have to mail the cards back for pro-rated refunds based upon the day you first use them. Unused cards will be refunded in full. The sunset dates — meaning the last day on which previously purchased cards will be valid for travel — are presented in the table below.

Any questions?

Earlier this morning, the MTA Board approved a series of measures designed to rollback their Doomsday plan. Service to the public will not be cut, and while the station agents may be slashed, the fare hikes have been rolled back as well. Instead of a 25-30 percent hike, fares will go up by around 10 percent. The new fares are scheduled to go into effect on June 28.

“Today we implemented a bittersweet solution that comes with additional pain for our customers, our employees and those who live and work in our region,” said H. Dale Hemmerdinger, Chairman of the MTA Board. “But it will – at least for the short term – prevent the Armageddon that loomed large when we last met.”

“The fare and toll increase passed today is not ideal, but it spares our customers from actions that would have been extraordinarily painful,” said Elliot G. Sander, MTA Executive Director and CEO. “Implementing severe fare increases and deep service cuts directly contradicts the MTA’s mission and my goals as CEO. It is a great relief to know we will be able to continue providing the service our customers expect at an affordable price.”

The fare structure is as follows:

For more from the fare hike board meeting, you can replay my morning liveblog.

The MTA Board has scheduled an emergency board meeting for Monday, May 11 at 10 a.m. to vote on a new fare structure. At the meeting, planned in response state-approved rescue package, the Board will vote to discard the planned service hikes and will establish the new fares.

amNew York speculated on the fare structure this morning. Heather Haddon writes:

As a result, straphangers would see base fares increase from $2 to $2.25 starting probably in July. Meanwhile, monthly MetroCards are reported to increase from $81 to $89, and the MTA will likely boost the bonus on pay-per-ride cards from 15 percent to 20 percent.

There is no word on the minimum amount required for the pay-per-ride discount yet. This raises the discounted pay-per-ride fare from $1.74 to $1.88. The new fares should be into effect in either late June or early July.

As Albany bickered over an MTA funding plan, the agency yesterday announce a $621-million increase in its deficit for 2009 and a $1 billion increase for 2010. Based on the response out of Albany, you’d never know how bad that news really is.

In a nutshell, the story is simple. Because ridership and tax revenues are both lower than projected, the MTA’s substantial budge deficit will grow by nearly 50 percent this year. While neither Malcolm Smith nor Sheldon Silver has realized it, this increase basically negates any Albany-produced funding package. Even if the State Senate and Assembly can come to terms — even if they pass something that brings some money into the MTA’s coffers — it will be enough to cover a $1.2 billion gap and not a $1.8 billion gap.

So then, what does this mean for New Yorkers reliant on transit? Well, at this point, the MTA will have little choice but to start cutting service. The cutbacks may not be as drastic as once feared, but a $600 million gap is pretty substantial itself.

The worse news though comes in the fare box department. Since the MTA is so reliant right now on fare box revenue, the agency said on Monday that it may have to raise fares twice in 2009. With no Senate action, the fares will go up by nearly 25 percent at the end of May, and for the first time in MTA history, the fares could go up a second time this calendar year and a third time in 2010.

Pete Donohue reports a potential eight percent increase on tap as the second fare hike of the year. I would expect that to arrive by October or November when the MTA has a clearer picture of how much money it needs to balance its books before the end of the year. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the eventual second fare hike ended up at over eight percent.

Times are bleak indeed for transit in New York.

While the ink has hardly dried on the MTA Board’s imprimatur to the fare hikes and service cuts, transit advocates are gearing up for another round of hikes. Unfortunately for transit-dependent New Yorkers, the MTA may now be on an annual hike plan to cover its ever-growing debt payments, and the next fare hike may come along as early as 2010.

Streetsblog had word of a statement from Gene Russianoff on the potential frequency of future hikes:

Without new financial help from Albany soon, the MTA says its current bad finances may mean another fare hike in 2010.

That would make it three years in a row for fare increases — March 2008, June 2009 and early 2010 — the worst record in the MTA’s 40-plus year history.

It demonstrates a trend of shifting the costs of operating transit from some beneficiaries of the subways and buses — such as motorists and businesses — onto riders. For example, the riders’ share of operating costs for the subways will go from 69% to an astonishing 84%, according to the MTA, if the just-approved fare increases are implemented.

Under the plan proposed by former MTA chairman Richard Ravitch, no new fare hike would occur before 2011.

Of course, all of this — absent general inflation-based fare hikes — could be avoided if Albany were to act. In one swoop, the State Senate could avoid extreme fare hikes and service cuts this year and any fare hike next year.

Maybe though instead of waiting for Malcolm Smith to get his ducks in a row, Sheldon Silver should, as the Post suggested today, pass a one-house bailout. Assembly action would force the State Senate’s hand. It could also create more of a press and voter uproar over Senate inaction.

Anyway, transit’s future in New York City is bleak. The MTA needs a few billion for its operating budget and has a $30 billion five-year capital plan in its pocket too. At a time when the economy needs transit, when the environment needs transit, when the city needs transit, we’re sitting here talking about the potential for a third fare hike in three years rather than true progressive solutions to something that shouldn’t be such a problem.